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Clarifying penalty tactics

I'm providing an explanation on penalty tactics, looking at pros, cons, psychology, and relevant data. There's a thought about the idiom "守株待兔," which might be incorrect; instead, staying central may fit better. Kepa's tendency to dive might not align with "守株待兔," but rather with "守一侧."

Research indicates that around 60-70% of penalties go to the shooter's dominant side. Right-footed players, for instance, often shoot to the goalkeeper's left. Data must be treated cautiously, though, since precise numbers can vary and I shouldn't assume specifics without certainty. Kepa's record in penalties is mixed; he has had noteworthy saves but has faced challenges too.Exploring goalkeeper strategies

During the Chelsea vs Frankfurt match in 2019, Kepa saved twice, and in the 2021 Super Cup, he stepped in for Mendy and made a crucial save against Villarreal. There's also the idea of "goalkeeper indecision effect," and the "keeper's paradox" suggests that goalkeepers dive left or right 94% of the time and only stay central 6%.

While staying central could be beneficial in certain situations, the mention of "守株待兔" might relate to staying still and waiting for the shot. It's tricky, as this approach can lead to risks if shooters adjust.Evaluating goalkeeper strategies

I'm looking into cues like run-up angle, hips, and footedness for shooters, along with insights from team analysts. As a short-run strategy, it seems defensible, but success hinges on pre-scouting and reading the situation.

If a goalkeeper repeatedly dives one way, shooters might exploit the keeper's expectation to change sides, which relates to the "gambler's fallacy." I can propose a Bayesian explanation: if data suggests a 60% likelihood of a shot going right, sticking with that direction is optimal until new evidence arises.

I should keep my response concise, mentioning points like the approximately 75-80% goal rate for penalties and that even if a goalkeeper guesses right, it doesn't guarantee a save.